The Law of the Social Impact of Digital Technology

by Enrico Nardelli

(versione italiana qua)

The Law of the Social Impact of Digital Technology – "The social impact of digital technology is unpredictable, even taking into account the Law of the Social Impact of Digital Technology."

This variation on Hofstadter's Law (by the unforgettable author of Gödel, Escher, Bach) about planning activities — "Any task takes longer than you think, even taking into account Hofstadter's Law" — came to me some time ago, when I was taking part in the debate on digital contact tracing applications for managing the Covid-19 pandemic. Centralised or decentralised, anonymous or pseudonymous, voluntary or compulsory, from the most unbridled individual freedom to the most Orwellian social control.

I took part in some more technical discussions and contributed some information on the relevant legislative provisions, but a growing conviction has been taking hold within me that most people do not fully appreciate how delicate the intersection between digital technology and human society is — and therefore how much caution ought to be exercised.

Personally, I tend to find this lack of understanding forgivable, because the bulk of humanity has been living with digital tools for barely two decades, during which governments have done very little to teach any fundamental concepts. At the same time, these are technologies more disruptive than the printing press, more revolutionary than the industrial revolution.

If we look with a degree of detachment at the evolution of humanity over the last five thousand years — roughly the period in which civilisations somewhat more socially developed than a tribe first emerged — we realise that technological advances had the chance to be absorbed and digested over generation after generation, during which societies had time to adapt their social structures to what was happening.

With the spread of digital technology, however, something different has occurred: in a very short space of time, a couple of laws of nature have been overturned — laws that, for better or worse, have always governed our existence.

The most important is the one that reminds us that everything, sooner or later, comes to an end. Every living being eventually dies, and with their death their actions and relationships often fade into oblivion. In our digital lives this does not happen, and as digital representations grow ever more sophisticated, this overturning clashes increasingly with common sense. Of course, even centuries ago we had statues reminding posterity of the features and deeds of famous figures — but now digital eternity is within everyone's reach.

Second — and connected to the first "subversive" element — there is the breaking down of spatial and temporal barriers, which makes the replication of any digital artefact virtually instantaneous and ubiquitous. Our "digital double" can be replicated as many times as desired, wherever desired, effortlessly — something that until now was only possible for the gods.

As a result of the dismantling of these two "Pillars of Hercules," a digital secret — once revealed — will live forever and spread across the entire world. It is no coincidence that the fundamental natural right to be forgotten required explicit legislation before it could be recognised by the digital society. And it did not happen immediately, and it did not happen without casualties: lives were shattered before a remedy was found.

Having demolished these insurmountable limits within the brief span of a single generation, we have found ourselves in entirely uncharted territory, at risk of meeting the fate of Ulysses in Dante's Inferno

:

Three times it whirled her round with all the waters,
the fourth time lifted up the stern on high,
and plunged the prow below, as pleased Another,
until the sea had closed above us.

The problem is expressed by the Law I stated above: we cannot grasp the impact of this technology because it is too "alien" to us (listen again to these reflections on the Internet by David Bowie from ten years ago), and because the exponentially growing combination of interactions between technologies and situations lies beyond our capacity for comprehension.

And yet we ought to know — given that from naked apes we have transformed ourselves into the (near) lords and masters of this planet — that everything that is available will be exploited in every possible way. And we are not in a position to foresee the consequences. The possible combinations and interactions would therefore call for proceeding with the utmost caution — whereas instead we seem to be running blindfolded toward the edge of a cliff.

So let us try to be very, very careful every time we pick up the "magic wand" of the digital. We risk finding ourselves in the same situation as the sorcerer's apprentice — but without a master capable of setting things right.

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The original version (in italian) has been published by "Key4Biz" on 21 July 2020.